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    Head Scratcher: Is Atlantis Casino or Cantor Gaming more 'off' in projecting the Packers' 2013 season?

    by Staff • BeyondtheBets.com - May 10, 2013

    Depending on your perspective, the Green Bay Packers either have a highly inflated win total for the 2013 NFL season, or they’re vastly underrated in Cantor Gaming’s point spreads for every week.

    Why? Allow us to explain.

    Using the win odds of Cantor’s spreads, we went through all 32 NFL teams and came up with a projected amount of wins based on the lines. Click here for a full explanation on win odds, but here’s a quick explanation.

    If an NFL team is favored by 4 points over an opponent, odds say that team has a 66 percent chance of winning the game. So, if we’re going through an entire team’s schedule and projecting “win odds,” we would give the favorite 0.66 wins for that game and the underdog 0.34 wins.

    Quite obviously, there’s no such thing as two-thirds or one-third of a win, but if you add up the entire team’s schedule this way, we can come up with a rough estimate for how many victories the projected point spreads suggest that team will accumulate.

    If a team is favored by 4 points in three consecutive games, for example, that adds up to 1.98 wins. So we can reasonably assume the most likely outcome for that team over the three-game stretch is a 2-1 record.

    Got it? Good. Now, back to the Packers. Atlantis set Green Bay’s win total at 12, tied with the Denver Broncos for the highest of any team. But the win odds of Cantor’s spreads come out to only 9.26 wins, a huge difference of 2.74 games that is almost twice as high as the next team. (See table below.)

    So, which casino is off? That’s up for debate, but we’ll say that Cantor is more “off” than Atlantis. There are a number of spreads that seem a little low, including the following:

    Week 6: -4 vs. Bears (They were -5.5 last year and are 5-0 at home against Chicago since 2008, winning by an average of two touchdowns.)
    Week 12: -4.5 vs. Vikings (They were -10 in the playoffs last year and won by 14, and -7 in Week 13 and won by 9. In 2011, they were -13 and won 45-7. What gives?)
    Week 16: -3 vs. Steelers (This seems to indicate Green Bay and Pittsburgh are power rated equally. Really?)

    Listed below are the differences between Atlantis’ win totals and Cantor’s win odds for all 32 NFL teams.

    Also, stay tuned for our next post, which will feature team-by-team schedules with point spreads and win odds for each week.

    TEAM BTB TOTAL ATLANTIS WINS (BY POINT SPREADS) DIFFERENCE
    Green Bay Packers 10 12 9.26 2.74
    Houston Texans 10.5 11 9.46 1.54
    St. Louis Rams 7 8 6.87 1.13
    New England Patriots 11.5 11.5 10.39 1.11
    Atlanta Falcons 10 10 9.04 0.96
    Denver Broncos 11.5 12 11.06 0.94
    Washington Redskins 9 9 8.15 0.85
    Pittsburgh Steelers 9 10 9.17 0.83
    San Francisco 49ers 11.5 11.5 10.70 0.8
    Baltimore Ravens 9 9.5 8.90 0.6
    New Orleans Saints 9.5 9.5 8.94 0.56
    Cincinnati Bengals 8.5 9 8.50 0.5
    New York Giants 9 9 8.56 0.44
    Tennessee Titans 6 6.5 6.08 0.42
    Chicago Bears 8 8.5 8.14 0.36
    Seattle Seahawks 10.5 11 10.66 0.34
    Dallas Cowboys 8.5 8.5 8.29 0.21
    Arizona Cardinals 5.5 6 5.82 0.18
    Indianapolis Colts 10 8 7.89 0.11
    Oakland Raiders 5.5 5.5 5.41 0.09
    New York Jets 5.5 7 7.03 -0.03
    Minnesota Vikings 7.5 7.5 7.69 -0.19
    Miami Dolphins 7.5 7.5 7.81 -0.31
    Jacksonville Jaguars 5 4.5 5.04 -0.54
    Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 6.5 7.06 -0.56
    Philadelphia Eagles 7.5 6.5 7.15 -0.65
    Detroit Lions 7.5 7 7.79 -0.79
    Kansas City Chiefs 7.5 6.5 7.33 -0.83
    San Diego Chargers 5.5 7 7.94 -0.94
    Carolina Panthers 7 6.5 7.48 -0.98
    Cleveland Browns 6 5 6.13 -1.13
    Buffalo Bills 6.5 5 6.26 -1.26

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